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NAHB - remodelers’ confidence increases in fourth quarter of 2019

Jan 24, 2020
The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 58 in the fourth quarter of 2019, up three points from the previous quarter. The RMI has been consistently above 50—indicating that more remodelers report market activity is higher compared to the prior quarter than report it is lower—since the second quarter of 2013. The overall RMI averages current remodeling activity and future indicators. Current market conditions increased two points to 56 in the fourth quarter of 2019. Among its three major components, major additions and alterations gained four points to 56, minor additions and alterations increased by one point to 54 and the home maintenance and repair component rose one point to 58. The future market indicators gained three points to 60 in the fourth quarter (Figure 3). Calls for bids increased by three to 58, amount of work committed for the next three months gained three points to 57, the backlog of remodeling jobs jumped five points 64 and appointments for proposals increased by two points to 62. The fourth quarter RMI reading reflects solid demand for remodeling, supported by a strong overall economy and low interest rates. Remodelers still face challenges in the market, including skilled labor shortages, making it harder to work off a backlog quickly.

Oil plunges as coronavirus outbreak threatens demand
Oil prices slid Friday morning as the widening Wuhan coronavirus outbreak threatened to curb global demand. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, fell 1.8 percent to $60.90 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, dipped 2 percent to $54.47. They have fallen by 5.9 percent and 6.9 percent this week, respectively. “Oil prices are at ground zero for the market-related fallout from the SARS-like coronavirus,” Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group, said in a note sent to clients on Friday. The outbreak has already caused “significant oil demand destruction,” according to Flynn, as more than 40 million people have been quarantined ahead of the Lunar New Year, a time when many Chinese would otherwise be traveling. The cancellation of many Lunar New Year festivities will “eventually add up to hundreds of thousands of unused barrels of jet fuel, diesel and gasoline,” Flynn said. The outbreak, which originated in Wuhan, China, has sickened 830 people and killed 26 in the country, China’s National Health Commission said Friday. Cases of the virus have also been discovered in the U.S., Japan, Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Nepal. On Thursday, the World Health Organization said that it's still “a bit too early to consider that this is a public health emergency of international crisis.” Even before the coronavirus outbreak, oil prices were under pressure due to a supply glut, which isn’t expected to end anytime soon despite OPEC cutting production at its December meeting. “We expect, even with the cuts coming from OPEC+, we think at least the first half of this year, we will see a surplus of 1 million barrels per day,” International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol told Reuters at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Brent crude oil has fallen 7.5 percent this year while West Texas Intermediate crude oil has tumbled 10.7 percent.

ATTOM - average U.S. home seller profits hit $65,500 in 2019, another new high
ATTOM Data Solutions released its Year-End 2019 U.S. Home Sales Report, which shows that home sellers nationwide in 2019 realized a home price gain of $65,500 on the typical sale, up from $58,100 last year and up from $50,027 two years ago. The latest profit figure, based on median purchase and resale prices, marked the highest level in the United States since 2006 – a 13-year high. That $65,500 typical home seller profit represented a 34 percent return on investment compared to the original purchase price, up from 31.4 percent last year and up from 27.4 percent in 2017, to the highest average home-seller ROI since 2006. Both raw profits and ROI have improved nationwide for eight straight years. However, last year’s gain in ROI – up less than three percentage points – was the smallest since 2011. “The nation’s housing boom kept roaring along in 2019 as prices hit a new record, returning ever-higher profits to home sellers and posing ever-greater challenges for buyers seeking bargains. In short, it was a great year to be a seller,” said Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM Data Solutions. “But there were signs that the market was losing some steam last year, as profits and profit margins increased at the slowest pace since 2011. While low mortgage rates are propping up prices, the declining progress suggests some uncertainty going into the 2020 buying season.” Among 220 metropolitan statistical areas with a population greater than 200,000 and sufficient historical sales data, those in western states continued to reap the highest returns on investments, with concentrations on or near the west coast. Metro areas with the highest home seller ROIs were in San Jose, CA (82.8 percent); San Francisco, CA (72.8 percent); Seattle, WA (65.6 percent); Merced, CA (63.2 percent) and Salem, OR (62.1 percent). The top four in 2019 were the same areas that topped the list in 2018.

The U.S. median home price increased 6.2 percent in 2019, hitting an all-time high of $258,000. The annual home-price appreciation in 2019 topped the 4.5 percent rise in 2018 compared to 2017, but was down from the 7.1 percent increase in 2017 compared to 2016. Among 134 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of 200,000 or more and sufficient home price data, those with the biggest year-over-year increases in median home prices were South Bend, IN (up 18.4 percent); Boise City, ID (up 12.6 percent); Spokane, WA (up 10.9 percent); Atlantic City, NJ (up 10.6 percent) and Salt Lake City, UT (up 9.6 percent). Along with Salt Lake City, other major metro areas with a population of at least 1 million and at least an 8 percent annual increase in home prices in 2019 were Grand Rapids, MI (up 8.9 percent) and Columbus, OH (up 8.3 percent).Home prices in 2019 reached new peaks in 105 of the 134 metros (78 percent), including Los Angeles, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia. Homeowners who sold in the fourth quarter of 2019 had owned their homes an average of 8.21 years, up from 8.08 years in the previous quarter and up from 7.95 years in the fourth quarter of 2018. The latest figure represented the longest average home seller tenure since the first quarter of 2000, the earliest period in which data is available. Among 108 metro areas with a population of at least 200,000 and sufficient data, the top five tenures for home sellers in the fourth quarter of 2019 were all in Connecticut: Norwich, CT (13.49 years); New Haven, CT (13.32 years) Bridgeport-Stamford, CT (13.23 years); Torrington, CT (12.33 years) and Hartford, CT (12.25 years). Counter to the national trend, 45 of the 108 metro areas (42 percent) posted a year-over-year decrease in average home-seller tenure, including Colorado Springs, CO (down 9 percent); Modesto, CA (down 7 percent); Visalia, CA (down 5 percent); Oklahoma City, OK (down 5 percent) and Olympia, WA (down 5 percent).

Nationwide, all-cash purchases accounted for 25.3 percent of single-family home and condo sales in 2019, the lowest level since 2007. The latest figure was down from 27.0 percent in 2018 and 27.7 percent in 2017, and well off the 38.4 percent peaks in 2011 and 2012. However, this is still well above the pre-recession average of 18.7 percent between 2000 and 2007. Among 166 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000 and sufficient cash-sales data, those where cash sales represented the largest share of all transactions in 2019 were Macon, GA (51.1 percent of sales); Naples, FL (50.4 percent); Chico, CA (47.9 percent); Montgomery, AL (44.7 percent) and Fort Smith, OK (43.8 percent). Distressed home sales — including bank-owned (REO) sales, third-party foreclosure auction sales, and short sales — accounted for 11.5 percent of all U.S. single family home and condo sales in 2019, down from 12.4 percent in 2018 and from a peak of 38.8 percent in 2011. The latest figure marked the lowest point since 2006. States where distressed sales comprised the largest portion of total sales in 2019 were all in the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic regions: New Jersey (20.1 percent of sales), Connecticut (19.5 percent), Delaware (19.4 percent), Maryland (18.1 percent) and Rhode Island (17.6 percent). Among 204 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000 and with sufficient data, those where distressed sales represented the largest portion of all sales in 2019 were Atlantic City, NJ (26.9 percent of sales); Columbus, GA (22.6 percent); Trenton, NJ (22.1 percent); Norwich, CT (21.6 percent) and Peoria, IL (20.0 percent). Those with the smallest shares were Portland, ME (3.3 percent of sales); Ogden, UT (3.8 percent); Provo, UT (4.1 percent); Salt Lake City, UT (4.6 percent) and San Francisco, CA (4.6 percent). Among 53 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 1 million, those with the highest levels of distressed sales in 2019 were Baltimore, MD (19.3 percent of sales); Hartford, CT (18.9 percent); Philadelphia, PA (18.1 percent); Cleveland, OH (17.9 percent) and Providence, RI (17.7 percent).

Aside from San Francisco and Salt Lake City, metros with at least 1 million people that had the lowest shares, were San Jose, CA (5.2 percent of sales); Austin, TX (5.7 percent) and Grand Rapids, MI (6.2 percent). Institutional investors nationwide accounted for 2.9 percent of all single-family home and condo sales in 2019, down from 3.0 percent in 2018 to the lowest point since 2015. Among 120 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000 and sufficient institutional-investor sales data, those with the highest levels of institutional-investor transactions in 2019 were Atlanta, GA (9.5 percent of sales); Charlotte, NC (8.6 percent); Lafayette, LA (8.4 percent); Memphis, TN (8.3 percent) and Raleigh, NC (7.8 percent). Nationwide, buyers using Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans accounted for 11.9 percent of all single-family home and condo purchases in 2019, up from 10.6 percent in 2018. The increase marked the first rise since 2015. Among 197 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000 and sufficient FHA- buyer data, the top four with the highest share of purchases made with FHA loans were in Texas. Those with the highest levels of FHA buyers in 2019 were McAllen, TX (30.4 percent of sales); El Paso, TX (26 percent); Amarillo, TX (24.4 percent); Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX (23.7 percent) and Visalia, CA (23.5 percent). The four Texas metros were the same that led the list in 2018.

Bank of America pours $35B into high-tech spending spree: Moynihan
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says his company has been pouring billions of dollars into technology. The $35 billion the Charlotte, N.C.-based lender has invested over the past decade includes $1 billion in mobile banking to “make it better and better," he told FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.. The focus is to make sure the digital services, which are less costly than both branch visits and ATM transactions, offer good feature functionality and are built "secure and to scale," he said. Mobile interactions, which include cash transfers and virtual check deposits, are growing at 15-20 percent a year and the number of mobile customers has risen 10 percent annually, Moynihan said. “Banks spend more on technology than any other industry, and we think this is going to be the decade of banks and technology,” Wells Fargo Securities analyst Mike Mayo told FOX Business’ Liz Claman earlier in January. He believes that digital banking, electronic payments and the governance of the process “makes or breaks the banks because that allows banks to grow revenues faster than expenses.” When financial institutions can control expenses, Mayo said, they encounter less pressure to boost revenue with risky loans. “Tech is getting married to banks, and it's permanent and it's finally going to work,” Mayo said.

NAHB - HUD secretary cites work to ease affordability woes
Ben CarsonU.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Ben Carson said today he is committed to working with NAHB and other stakeholders to seek solutions to the nation’s housing affordability crisis' Speaking at the NAHB Leadership Council meeting in Las Vegas in conjunction with the International Builders’ Show, Carson said: “Addressing our country’s affordable housing challenges will take innovation not just in physical construction and development, but also innovation in developing housing choice. For example, municipalities may help alleviate barriers to renting apartments by providing renters with financing alternatives beyond a traditional lump-sum cash security deposit.” President Trump last year signed an executive order establishing the White House Council on Eliminating Regulatory Barriers to Affordable Housing. “This council, which I have the privilege to chair, is working with local leaders and citizens to identify and remove regulatory burdens that block affordable housing development,” Carson said. To assist the council’s work, HUD is soliciting input on perceived barriers that limit development. “We encourage NAHB members to take advantage of this open window to provide your insights and ideas,” Carson said. Carson also announced that HUD has initiated a pilot program to give procurement preferences to small businesses whose principal office is located in an opportunity zone. Opportunity zones were established as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 to provide tax incentives for investors with capital gains to invest in underserved communities. The pilot applies to procurements at or below the Simplified Acquisition Threshold, currently set at $250,000, and typically set aside for small businesses. The pilot began on Jan. 1 and will run through June 30, 2020.

The secretary also congratulated NAHB on the launch of its newest mobile app, the Pocket Guide to Fair Housing Act Accessibility. The app was partially funded by an educational grant from HUD and will enable builders and developers to determine if the Fair Housing Act’s accessibility requirements apply to their housing project and, if so, provide a quick reference guide to the seven basic accessibility requirements for compliance with the law. Last year, NAHB and HUD teamed up to host the inaugural Innovative Housing Showcase on the National Mall. The five-day event explored the latest housing technologies that are helping to improve housing affordability. Carson announced that HUD will continue the Innovative Housing Showcase as an annual tradition and that NAHB will once again co-host this year’s event, which will take place in September. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Mark Calabria, whose agency oversees Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks, also appeared before the NAHB Leadership Council to discuss the health of the housing finance system. “We are finally seeing income growth that can support housing markets,” said Calabria. “But there is still weakness in the mortgage market. We need to have a housing finance system that is competitive, liquid and resilient.” Calabria said he is working with the Treasury Department to raise the capital levels of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac up to $45 billion. “We want to build up their capital so that in times of stress they can be there for you and the rest of the market,” he said.

Regulators drop the hammer on Wells Fargo execs at the center of fake account scandal
Wells Fargo indicated just over a week ago that the fallout from its fake account scandal was far from over, disclosing that it has at least $3.1 billion set aside for expected litigation payouts. But that is at the company level. Meanwhile, the fallout for the executives who failed to prevent the fake account scandal looks to be far from over as well. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced Thursday that it is dropping the hammer on several of the bank’s former executives, on whose watch the fake account scandal took place. The trouble all began in 2016, when the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the OCC, and the City and County of Los Angeles fined the bank $185 million for more than 5,000 of the bank’s former employees opening as many as 2 million fake accounts in order to get sales bonuses. But that was hardly the end of the consequences that befell the bank. The bank’s CEO and chairman, John Stumpf, promptly resigned from his positions. From there, the bank took additional action to address the issues that led to the fines, including revoking 2016 bonuses for its top executives, firing four senior managers, outing another two executives, and splitting the role of chairman and CEO. Beyond that, the bank clawed back more than $100 million in bonuses from Stumpf and former head of community banking Carrie Tolstedt, both of whom could have put a stop to the fake account creation pipeline. The company even prepared a new pay plan where employee compensation was no longer tied to sales. The scandal also led to hundreds of millions of dollars in payouts to regulators, affected customers, and shareholders. But the bank, and the executives who failed to stop the creation of the fake accounts, are not done paying the piper yet. The OCC announced Thursday that it is fining Stumpf $17.5 million as part of a consent order that also prohibits Stumpf from working for a bank in any capacity without the OCC’s permission. According to the OCC, Stumpf did not do nearly enough to address the fake account issue either during his time as head of the community bank section of Wells Fargo or as the bank’s CEO. “[Stumpf] was or should have been aware of the problem and its root cause,” the OCC said in its consent order. “During Respondent’s tenure, there was a culture in the Community Bank that resulted in systemic violations of laws and regulations, breaches of fiduciary duties, and unsafe or unsound practices by large numbers of Community Bank employees.” According to the OCC, Stumpf’s failures were repeated and systemic.



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20 Mar, 2020
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19 Mar, 2020
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for February 2020 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 25.9 percent compared from a year ago. Compared to January 2020, applications decreased by 1 percent. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns. "Despite a monthly decrease in February new applications and estimated new home sales, the year-over-year trends were strong, with new applications increasing 26 percent, and our estimate of new home sales increasing 8 percent," said Joel Kan, MBA's Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. "Looking ahead, there is significant uncertainty regarding how the coronavirus epidemic will impact the housing market, and some of January's record-level activity could have been attributed to the warmer winter weather, lower mortgage rates, and the tight inventory of existing homes on the market - especially in lower price tiers." MBA estimates new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 746,000 units in February 2020, based on data from the BAS. The new home sales estimate is derived using mortgage application information from the BAS, as well as assumptions regarding market coverage and other factors. The seasonally adjusted estimate for February is a decrease of 13.8 percent from the January pace of 865,000 units. On an unadjusted basis, MBA estimates that there were 64,000 new home sales in February 2020, a decrease of 3 percent from 66,000 new home sales in January. By product type, conventional loans composed 69.3 percent of loan applications, FHA loans composed 18.5 percent, RHS/USDA loans composed 0.8 percent and VA loans composed 11.4 percent. The average loan size of new homes decreased from $346,140 in January to $340,169 in February. NAHB - HUD, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac suspend foreclosures and evictions President Trump announced today that he has directed the Department of Housing and Urban Development to suspend foreclosures and evictions for mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration through the end of April. The Federal Housing Finance Agency also announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will follow suit and suspend all foreclosures and evictions for at least 60 days for home owners with mortgages backed by the two government-sponsored enterprises. “This foreclosure and eviction suspension allows home owners with an Enterprise-backed mortgage to stay in their homes during this national emergency,” said FHFA Director Mark Calabria. “As a reminder, borrowers affected by the coronavirus who are having difficulty paying their mortgage, should reach out to their mortgage servicers as soon as possible. The Enterprises are working with mortgage servicers to ensure that borrowers facing hardship because of the coronavirus can get assistance.” Earlier this month, FHFA announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would allow borrowers impacted by the coronavirus to suspend mortgage payments for up to 12 months. New home construction dips again in February Construction of new homes fell again in February, but not as much as the previous month. Those declines follow a December surge which had pushed home construction to the highest level in 13 years. Builders started construction on 1.60 million homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, a decline of 1.5% from 1.62 million units in January, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Analysts had expected a more significant drop. The economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak was not apparent in the February numbers. Application for building permits, considered a good sign of future activity, fell 5.5% in February to an annual rate of 1.46 million units. However, permits for single-family home construction rose 1.7%. Single-family housing starts were up 6.7% to 1,072,000 in February over the revised January figure of 1,005,000. The report on housing starts showed that home building declined the most in the Northeast, falling 25.1%, followed by a 8.2% drop in the West. Home building fell modestly in the West and South regions. The National Association of Home Builders reported Tuesday that its survey of builders' sentiment declined slightly in February, but remains high. The group said that builder confidence reflected a decline in mortgage rates, a low supply of existing homes and a strong labor market with rising wages and the lowest unemployment rate in a half century. But that could change drastically in the coming months as American industry braces for the impact of COVID-19, which is grinding the economy to a near halt as people stay home, airlines cancel flights and public events are called off. "Due to the slowdown in economic growth and the volatility in markets from the coronavirus, mortgage rates will remain lower for longer, which will help homebuyers in the longer run," said Adam DeSanctis of the Mortgage Bankers Association. "However, we may start to see these homebuilding trends take a turn for the worse, depending on the industry's ability to continue day-to-day operations during these difficult times." The average rate on a 30-year-fixed mortgage ticked up slightly to 3.36% last week from 3.29% the previous week, which was the lowest level since mortgage buyer Freddie Mac started tracking the average in 1971. It could fall further this week after the Fed on Sunday slashed its benchmark rate to nearly zero. CoreLogic - single-family rent price increases double the rate of inflation, spurring affordability concerns in the midst of economic volatility - For the 14th consecutive month, Phoenix had the highest year-over-year rent price increase at 6.4% - Lower-priced rentals experienced increases of 3.5%, compared to gains of 2.6% among higher-priced rentals CoreLogic released its latest Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI), which analyzes single-family rent price changes nationally and among 20 metropolitan areas. Data collected for January 2020 shows a national rent increase of 2.9% year over year, down slightly from a 3.2% year-over-year increase in January 2019. Rent prices are now increasing at double the rate of inflation, presenting affordability challenges among current and prospective renters. Low rental home inventory, relative to demand, fuels the growth of single-family rent prices. The SFRI shows single-family rent prices have climbed between 2010 and 2019. However, overall year-over-year rent price increases have slowed since February 2016, when they peaked at 4.2%, and have stabilized at around 3% over the past year. Low-end rentals propped up national rent growth in January, which has been an ongoing trend since May 2014. Rent prices among this tier, defined as properties with rent prices less than 75% of the regional median, increased 3.5% year over year in January 2020, down from a gain of 3.9% in January 2019. Meanwhile, high-end rentals, defined as properties with rent prices greater than 125% of a region’s median rent, increased 2.6% in January 2020, down from a gain of 2.9% in January 2019. Among the 20 metro areas shown in Table 1, and for the 14th consecutive month, Phoenix had the highest year-over-year increase in single-family rents in January 2020 at 6.4% (compared to January 2019). Tucson, Arizona experienced the second-highest rent price growth in January 2020 with gains of 5.2%, followed closely by Las Vegas at 4.9%. Honolulu experienced the lowest rent increases out of all analyzed metros at 0.6%. Metro areas with limited new construction, low rental vacancies and strong local economies that attract new employees tend to have stronger rent growth. Phoenix experienced the highest year-over-year rent growth in January 2020, driven by annual employment growth of 3.2%. Austin, Texas experienced a 3.6% employment growth, which played a role in its above-average rent growth of 3.4% in January. This is compared with the national employment growth average of 1.5%, according to data from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. “The single-family rental market benefited from low unemployment rates over the past year, resulting in an increase in rental demand,” said Molly Boesel, principal economist at CoreLogic. “However, rents are increasing at about double the rate of inflation, which has negatively impacted affordability.” Home sales 'robust' despite coronavirus outbreak, real estate CEO says With many companies struggling amid the coronavirus pandemic, one industry may not be feeling the hurt yet, according to real-estate company Hovnanian Enterprises Inc.'s CEO. "The last two weeks, in one word, have been robust," Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. chairman and CEO Ara Hovnanian shared with FOX Business' Liz Claman on Tuesday. "We have been selling a lot of homes. Frankly, it's been surprising." Hovnanian admitted that going into the outbreak, his company was already seeing strong sales, so they are remaining cautiously optimistic. "New sales closings have been progressing regularly," Hovnanian said on "The Claman Countdown." "Customers want their home. They want to nest. If they're going to be inside for a while, they want to do it in their own home." He recognized the situation is changing quickly, but as of now, he's encouraged. Coronavirus spurs Trump to invoke Defense Production Act 'just in case we need it' President Trump will invoke the Defense Production Act because of the coronavirus pandemic, he said at a press conference Wednesday. "We'll be invoking the Defense Production Act just in case we need it. I think you all know what it is, and it can do a lot of good things if we need it," Trump said, adding that he'd sign it after the presser. The decision means the private sector can ramp up manufacturing of emergency supplies, including medical equipment. In addition, the administration is pushing for direct payments to relieve people suffering financially because of the virus. Trump said the size of those checks is "to be determined." Trump had said he hoped he didn't need the Defense Production Act because "it's a big step" in a Tuesday's press conference. President Trump declared a national emergency and enacted emergency powers outlined in the Stafford Act on Friday. MBA - mortgage applications decrease in latest MBA weekly survey Mortgage applications decreased 8.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 13, 2020. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 8.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 10 percent from the previous week and was 402 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index remained unchanged compared with the previous week and was 11 percent higher than the same week one year ago. "The ongoing situation around the coronavirus led to further stress in the financial markets late last week, with unprecedented volatility and widening spreads. This drove mortgage rates back up to their highest levels since mid-February and led to a 10 percent decrease in refinance applications. However, refinance activity remains very high. Excluding the spike two weeks ago, the index remained at its highest level since October 2012, and refinancing accounted for almost 75 percent of all applications," said Joel Kan, MBA's Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. "The Federal Reserve's rate cut and other monetary policy measures to help the economy should help to bring down mortgage rates in the coming weeks, spurring more refinancing. Amidst these challenging times, the savings that households can gain from refinancing will help bolster their own financial circumstances and support the broader economy." Added Kan, "Purchase activity was flat but remained over 10 percent higher than a year ago. The purchase market was on firm footing to start the year and has so far held steady through the current uncertainty. Looking ahead, a gloomier outlook may cause some prospective homebuyers to delay their home search, even with these lower mortgage rates." The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 74.5 percent of total applications from 76.5 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.4 percent of total applications. The FHA share of total applications increased to 7.3 percent from 6.9 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 14.5 percent from 13.1 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications increased to 0.4 percent from 0.3 percent the week prior. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) increased to 3.74 percent from 3.47 percent, with points increasing to 0.37 from 0.27 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $510,400) increased to 3.77 percent from 3.58 percent, with points increasing to 0.32 from 0.20 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 3.71 percent from 3.57 percent, with points increasing to 0.28 from 0.25 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.10 percent from 2.90 percent, with points increasing to 0.37 from 0.26 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 3.19 percent from 3.02 percent, with points decreasing to 0.19 from 0.25 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
16 Mar, 2020
The high-level takeaways from ATTOM Data Solutions’ newly released 2020 U.S. Single Family Rental Market Report are potential rental returns decrease from a year ago in 59 percent of the U.S. counties analyzed, while the highest potential SFR returns are in the Baltimore, Vineland, Macon, Mobile and Atlanta Metros. ATTOM’s annual single family rental report this year analyzed single-family rental returns in 389 U.S. counties with a population of at least 100,000 and sufficient rental and home price data. Rental data comes from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, and home price data comes from publicly recorded sales deed data collected and licensed by ATTOM Data Solutions. According to the report, the average annual gross rental yield (annualized gross rent income divided by median purchase price of single-family homes) among the 389 counties analyzed is 8.4 percent for 2020, down slightly from an average of 8.6 percent in 2019. The report revealed the counties with the highest potential annual gross rental yields for 2020: Baltimore City/County, MD (28.9 percent); Cumberland County, NJ, in the Vineland-Bridgeton metro area (20.1 percent); Bibb County, GA, in the Macon metro area (18.2 percent); Mobile County, AL (15.7 percent); and Clayton County, GA, in the Atlanta metro area (15.1 percent). Baltimore City, Cumberland and Bibb counties also had the top three yields in 2019. ATTOM’s report also pointed out that among counties with a population of at least 1 million, the highest potential gross rental yields in 2020 are in Wayne County (Detroit), MI (14.5 percent); Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), OH (11.8 percent); Cook County, IL (9.3 percent); Dallas County, TX (9.1 percent); and Harris County, TX (8.7 percent). Here are the Top 10: Saint Clair, IL (21.0 percent); Jefferson, AL (20.7 percent); Mobile, AL (19.6 percent); Baltimore City, MD (18.5 percent); Caddo, LA (17.3 percent); Beaver, PA (15.7 percent); Lorain, OH (15.4 percent); Madison, IL (10.0 percent); Summit, OH (9.9 percent); and Spartanburg, SC (8.1 percent). ATTOM’s 2020 SFR market report also noted the counties with the lowest potential annual gross rental yields: San Francisco County, CA (3.8 percent); San Mateo County, CA (3.8 percent); Williamson County, TN, in the Nashville metro area (3.9 percent); Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (4.3 percent); and Santa Clara County, CA (4.3 percent). Moreover, along with Kings County and Santa Clara County, the lowest potential annual gross rental yields in 2020 among counties with a population of at least 1 million are in Orange County, CA (5.0 percent); Queens County, NY (5.1 percent); and Los Angeles County, CA (5.2 percent). Impossible Foods raises $500M in new funding, says it can 'thrive' in coronavirus pandemic Plant-based meat producer Impossible Foods has raised around $500 million in its latest funding round. The Redwood City, California-based food-tech startup that makes alternative meat products using a molecule called heme that makes food look, taste and bleed like real beef or pork, announced Monday its latest series F funding round led by new investor South Korea's Mirae Asset Global Investments. Impossible said the new investment will go toward accelerating its manufacturing and scale helping it to expand its retail presence in more international markets and increase supply of newer products like its plant-based Impossible Sausage and Impossible Pork. The funding news comes with the widening coronavirus pandemic resulting in school closures and businesses like restaurants, bars and gyms to shutter in an attempt to contain virus from spreading. What's more, grocery store shelves have become increasingly empty as Americans stock up. "With this latest round of fundraising, Impossible Foods has the resources to accelerate growth -- and continue to thrive in a volatile macroeconomic environment, including the current COVID-19 pandemic." With this latest round of fundraising, Impossible Foods has the resources to accelerate growth -- and continue to thrive in a volatile macroeconomic environment, including the current COVID-19 pandemic," Impossible Foods' Chief Financial Officer David Lee said in a statement. Impossible Foods has raised $1.3 billion in funding, including its latest round. Other investors include Horizons Ventures, Khosla Ventures and Temasek. And the $5 billion market for plant-based foods has grown increasingly competitive as larger food companies like Kellogg's, Nestle and Tyson roll out their own versions of plant-based meat at lower price points. As a result, Impossible Foods lowered its wholesale prices by 15 percent. And its competitor Beyond Meat told analysts earlier this month it wants to have at least one of its products comparably priced to real meat by 2024. MBA - commercial/multifamily mortgage debt grows in the fourth quarter of 2019 The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding at the end of 2019 was $248 billion (7.3 percent) higher than at the end of 2018, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding quarterly report. MBA's report found that total mortgage debt outstanding in the final three months of 2019 rose by 2.1 percent ($75.0 billion) compared to last year's third quarter, with all four major investor groups increasing their holdings. Multifamily mortgage debt grew by $30.4 billion (2.0 percent) to $1.53 trillion during the fourth quarter, and by $116.7 billion (8.2 percent) for the entire year. "In 2019, the amount of mortgage debt backed by commercial and multifamily properties grew by the largest annual amount since before the Global Financial Crisis," said Jamie Woodwell, MBA's Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. "Every major capital source increased their holdings, and some by double digits. Continuing the recent trend, the growth in multifamily mortgage debt outpaced that of other property types." Added Woodwell, "Looking ahead, a key question will be how the coronavirus and related economic shocks will affect the market's momentum in 2020. At this point it is still too early to tell." The four major investor groups are: bank and thrift; commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS); collateralized debt obligation (CDO) and other asset backed securities (ABS) issues; federal agency and government sponsored enterprise (GSE) portfolios and mortgage backed securities (MBS); and life insurance companies. MBA's analysis summarizes the holdings of loans or, if the loans are securitized, the form of the security. For example, many life insurance companies invest both in whole loans for which they hold the mortgage note (and which appear in this data under "Life Insurance Companies"), and in CMBS, CDOs and other ABS for which the security issuers and trustees hold the note (and which appear here under CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues). Commercial banks continue to hold the largest share (39 percent) of commercial/multifamily mortgages at $1.4 trillion. Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS are the second largest holders of commercial/multifamily mortgages, at $744 billion (20 percent of the total). Life insurance companies hold $561 billion (15 percent), and CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues hold $504 billion (14 percent). Looking solely at multifamily mortgages, agency and GSE portfolios and MBS hold the largest share of total debt outstanding at $744 billion (49 percent of the total), followed by commercial banks with $459 billion (30 percent), life insurance companies with $149 billion (10 percent), state and local governments with $88 billion (6 percent), and CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues with $48 billion (3 percent). In the fourth quarter of 2019, CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues saw the largest rise in dollar terms in their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt, with an increase of $23.1 billion (4.8 percent). Commercial banks increased their holdings by $21.5 billion (1.5 percent), agency and GSE portfolios and MBS increased their holdings by $16.1 billion (2.2 percent), and finance companies saw the largest decrease at $117 million (0.4 percent). In percentage terms, CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues saw the largest increase - 4.8 percent - in their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgages, and state and local government retirement funds saw their holdings decrease the most, at 1.0 percent. The $30.5 billion rise in multifamily mortgage debt outstanding between the third and fourth quarters of 2019 represented a 2.0 percent increase. In dollar terms, agency and GSE portfolios and MBS saw the largest increase, at $16.1 billion (2.2 percent), in their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt. Commercial banks increased their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt by $6.7 billion (1.5 percent). CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues increased holdings by 9.5 percent to $4.1 billion. Private pension funds saw the largest decline (7.2 percent) in their holdings, by $65 million. In percentage terms, REITs recorded the largest increase in holdings of multifamily mortgages (23.9 percent), and private pension funds saw the biggest decrease (7.2 percent). Between December 2018 and December 2019, commercial banks saw the largest gain (6.1 percent) in dollar terms in their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt - an increase of $82 billion. State and local government decreased their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgages by $1.5 billion (1.4 percent). In percentage terms, finance companies saw the largest increase (14.9 percent) in their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgages, and state and local government retirement funds saw the largest decrease (3.3 percent). The $116.7 billion rise in multifamily mortgage debt outstanding during 2019 represents an 8.2 percent increase. In dollar terms, agency and GSE portfolios and MBS saw the largest increase in their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt at 10 percent ($69.2 billion). State and local government saw the largest decrease in their holdings down $1.3 billion (1.4 percent). In percentage terms, REITs recorded the largest increase in their holdings of multifamily mortgages, 52 percent, while private pension funds saw the largest decrease, 24 percent. China's economy skids as virus paralyzes factories, households China factory production plunged at the sharpest pace in 30 years in the first two months of the year as the fast-spreading coronavirus and strict containment measures severely disrupted the world's second-largest economy. Urban investment and retail sales also fell sharply and for the first time on record, reinforcing views that the epidemic may have cut China's growth by half in the first quarter and that authorities will need to do more to restore growth. Industrial output fell by a much larger-than-expected 13.5% in January-February from the same period a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday. That was the weakest reading since January 1990 when Reuters records started, and a sharp reversal of the 6.9% growth in December. The median forecast of analysts polled by Reuters was for a rise of 1.5%, though estimates varied widely. "Judging by the data, the shock to China's economic activity from the coronavirus epidemic is greater than the global financial crisis," said Zhang Yi, chief economist at Zhonghai Shengrong Capital Management. "These data suggest a small contraction in the first-quarter economy is a high probability event. Government policies would need to be focused on preventing large-scale bankruptcies and unemployment." The dire batch of official economic data on Monday also showed a shocking declines in the retail and property sectors. Fixed asset investment fell 24.5% year-on-year, dashing forecasts for a 2.8% rise and skidding from the 5.4% growth in the prior period. Private sector investment dived 26.4% from a year earlier. Retail sales shrank 20.5% on-year, compared with a rise of 0.8% tipped by analysts and 8% growth in December as consumers shunned crowded places like shopping malls, restaurants and movie theaters. China's jobless rate rose to 6.2% in February, compared with 5.2% in December and the highest since the official records were published. While officials say the epidemic's peak in China had passed, analysts warn it could take months before the economy returns to normal. The fast spread of the virus around the world is also sparking fears of a global recession that would dampen demand for Chinese goods. The NBS in a statement on Monday said the impact from the coronavirus epidemic is controllable and short-term and authorities would strengthen policy to restore economic and social order. Mainland China has seen an overall drop in new coronavirus infections, but major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai continued to wrestle with cases involving infected travelers arriving from abroad, which could undermine China's virus fighting efforts. "While domestic conditions should improve slowly in the coming months, the mounting global disruption from the coronavirus will hold back the pace of recovery," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, Senior China Economist at Capital Economics. Prior to a significant deterioration in the virus, analysts had predicted a rapid V-shaped recovery for China's economy, similar to that seen after the SARS epidemic in 2003-2004. However, the outbreak escalated just as many businesses were closing for the long Lunar New Year holidays in late January, and widespread restrictions on transportation and personal travel, as well as mass quarantine, delayed their reopening for weeks. Both exports and imports fell in the first two months from a year earlier, while slumping demand pushed factory prices back into deflation. Factories may not be back to full output until April, some analysts estimate, and consumer confidence may take even longer to recover. The pain in the industrial sector was also seen in China's real estate market. Property investment fell at its fastest pace on record while home prices stalled for the first time in nearly five years. Despite those numbers, NBS spokesman Mao Shengyong said short-term policies to support the property market were not among the government's broad swathe of stimulus options. Authorities have been ramping up support since the virus outbreak escalated, with most aimed at helping cash-starved companies stay afloat until conditions improve. Other major global economies have more recently unleashed a wave of stimulus to prop up growth and ensure financial stability. China's central bank said on Friday it was cutting the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves (RRR) for the second time this year, releasing another 550 billion yuan ($78.82 billion) to push down borrowing costs. Mao from the NBS told reporters after the data release there is room for China to appropriately raise budget deficit ratio this year, and Beijing would expand effective investment to cope with the economic downward pressure. China has cut several key interest rates since late January, and some analysts are expecting another reduction in its benchmark lending rate this week. It has also urged lenders to extend cheap loans to the worst-hit firms and tolerate late payments, though analysts note that will likely saddle banks with more bad loans. The government has also announced fiscal support measures, including more funding for the virus fight, tax waivers, cuts in social insurance fees and subsidies for firms. "I'm worried about the small firms. The pressure of rent remains a problem and tax waivers don't mean much, as there's no revenues," said Hua Changchun, chief economist at Guotai Junan Securities. "If Q1 GDP growth turns negative, there would be huge pressure to achieve the full year target, unless we can have a 8%-10% of GDP growth in the second quarter." NAHB - Fed cuts interest rates to zero The Federal Reserve on Sunday evening slashed interest rates to zero in a dramatic move to boost the economy and keep borrowing costs as low as possible for consumers and businesses in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. The Fed reduced the federal funds target rate by a full percentage point, from 1% to 1.25% down to 0% to 0.25%. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz provides analysis on how the Fed action will provide a stimulus to the economy and housing in this Eye on Housing blog post. In an official statement, the Fed said: “The effects of the coronavirus will weigh on economic activity in the near term and pose risks to the economic outlook. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 0 to 1/4%. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.” The moves comes less than two weeks after the Fed made an emergency 50-point basis rate cut and pledged to purchase $1.5 trillion in bonds to keep the financial markets from seizing up. In today’s announcement, the Fed also announced that in order to support the smooth functioning of markets for Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities that are central to the flow of credit to households and businesses, the central bank will purchase at least $500 billion of Treasury bonds and $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities over the coming months.
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